Adam's House View: Jan 2026

ANNUAL OUTLOOK

Asset Allocation

  • Equities (US) Neutral
  • Equities (EM) Neutral
  • Fixed Income Overweight (+5%)
  • Cash Underweight (-5%)

Macro Theme

"The Great Normalization": Inflation has settled at 2.5%, but the neutral rate (r*) is structurally higher. We are entering a period of "High Friction" where capital costs matter again.

Core Conviction

"Lock in Yield." The curve is un-inverting. Extend duration on high-quality corporate credit.