# Adam OS Annual Macro Report 2026

## Executive Summary
2026 has been characterized by a profound bifurcation in global markets, driven primarily by the intersection of unprecedented technological advancement and resurfacing geopolitical fragmentation.

## Key Themes

### The AI Productivity Miracle
Capital expenditures in AI infrastructure have exceeded 1.5% of US GDP, creating a structural tailwind for corporate margins.

### Geopolitical Re-fragmentation
Supply chains remain vulnerable to localized shocks, as seen in the July energy disruptions. This has introduced persistent inflationary pressures, forcing central banks into a "higher for longer" policy stance.

### The Return of Active Management
The dispersal in returns between sectors benefiting from AI and those burdened by higher financing costs has created a stock-picker's market. The Adam OS structural default models indicate rising distress in commercial real estate and highly leveraged sectors.