PROBABILITY MATRIX • SYSTEMIC FRAGILITY • EVENT HORIZONS
Energy shock forcing Brent >$120. Immediate inflation resurgence causing CB pivot reversal.
2021/2022 'B-' vintages breach DSCR < 1.0x at 4.5% risk-free rate, triggering forced LMEs.
Enterprise adoption lags infrastructure buildout, causing hyper-scalers to cut forward guidance.
Treasury supply overwhelms demand, forcing yield curve steepening and crowding out private credit.