S&P 500 PATH vs 10Y YIELD TRAJECTORY
Visualizing the 2020-2027 transition from emergency liquidity to structural base-rate stability.
2026-2027 REFINANCING SHOCK
Coupon reset analysis: Comparing historical sub-4% rates to current market pricing (>7.5%).
$7.89T DRY POWDER POOL
12M DEFAULT RISK PROBABILITY
Merton structural model outputs for Single-B corporate credit sensitivity.
COUNTERFACTUAL ENGINE
Stress-Test Macro Inputs for 2027 Yield Sensitivity
Computed 2027 S&P 500 Fair Value
7,606
Baseline conditions met. Equity risk premium remains compressed by AI productivity expansion.