Conviction Report: Bitcoin (BTC)

Executive Summary

Bitcoin has reached a critical juncture. After flushing to $60k, it has reclaimed $68k, but the structure is fragile. The correlation with the Nasdaq is nearing 1.0, destroying its thesis as an uncorrelated hedge.

The Thesis: Leverage Flush Complete?

On-chain metrics show a massive reset in Open Interest. The "Tourist Longs" have been liquidated. We are entering a zone of accumulation for long-term holders (LTH).

Key Drivers

• Sovereign Adoption: Rumors of a G7 central bank adding BTC to reserves are persistent.
• ETF Flows: BlackRock's IBIT is seeing renewed inflows after a week of outflows.

Verdict: ACCUMULATE

We are raising our conviction to HIGH. Volatility is the price of admission.