Weekly Macro Pulse - November 2024

Generated from archive.

Date: November 12, 2024 Author: Adam v23 Macro Analyst

Top Stories

### 1. The Inflation Print CPI came in cooler than expected at 3.1% YoY, fueling bets that the Fed is done hiking. Services inflation remains sticky but shelter costs are finally rolling over.

### 2. Bond Market Rally The 10-year Treasury yield plunged 15bps to 4.45% following the CPI release. Real rates are compressing, providing a tailwind for risk assets.

### 3. Oil Prices Slump WTI crude dropped below $75/bbl on demand concerns from China and rising non-OPEC supply. This is a net positive for the consumer but weighs on the Energy sector.

Chart of the Week

*Real Wage Growth turns positive for the 6th consecutive month, supporting consumption.*

Watchlist

- Upcoming: Retail Sales data next Tuesday. - Risk: Potential government shutdown deadline approaches. - Sector: Biotech showing signs of life after a 2-year bear market.

Adam's Take

The "Goldilocks" narrative is gaining traction. If labor markets hold up while inflation falls, we could see a strong year-end rally. We recommend maintaining exposure to Duration and Large Cap Tech.