Divergence Point: June 2024. GPT-5 training runs fail to show significant improvement over GPT-4. Researchers conclude that "transformer architecture has peaked".
Nvidia ($NVDA) stock crashes 60% in a month as hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google) cancel GPU orders. The "AI Safety" debate vanishes, replaced by "AI Disappointment".
The Nasdaq enters a prolonged bear market. Venture capital pivots back to... nothing. There is no "Next Big Thing". The US economy, deprived of the productivity narrative, enters a standard recession in late 2024.