I. Foundational & Scoping Prompts

This initial phase establishes a clear foundation for the analysis. It involves defining the entity, selecting the analytical framework, and confirming that all necessary information is available. This structured start ensures consistency and defensibility, acting as a critical go/no-go gate for the entire process.

Captures fundamental identification data for the company and the specific purpose of the credit analysis. The purpose is paramount as it dictates the focus and depth required.

Defines the methodological "rules of engagement." The choice of rating agency framework (e.g., S&P, Moody's, Fitch) governs the entire analytical process, from financial adjustments to risk factor weighting.

Serves as a structured checklist to ensure all necessary documentation (financials, debt indentures, etc.) is available before substantive analysis begins. An analysis with incomplete data is inherently flawed.

Long-Term Rating Scale Equivalence

S&P Moody's Fitch Rating Grade
AAAAaaAAAHighest Quality
AA+, AA, AA-Aa1, Aa2, Aa3AA+, AA, AA-High Quality
A+, A, A-A1, A2, A3A+, A, A-Upper-Medium Grade
BBB+, BBB, BBB-Baa1, Baa2, Baa3BBB+, BBB, BBB-Lower-Medium Grade (Investment Grade)
BB+, BB, BB-Ba1, Ba2, Ba3BB+, BB, BB-Non-Investment Grade (Speculative)
B+, B, B-B1, B2, B3B+, B, B-Highly Speculative
CCC+, CCC, CCC-Caa1, Caa2, Caa3CCCSubstantial Risks
CCCaCCExtremely Speculative
CCCNear Default
DDIn Default

II. Macro-Environment Risk Assessment

A company's creditworthiness is fundamentally shaped by its operating environment. This top-down analysis assesses the external opportunities and threats from country, industry, and macroeconomic factors before delving into company specifics.

Assesses the economic, political, and institutional risks of the company's key operating countries. The sovereign rating can act as a "ceiling" on the corporate rating, especially for foreign currency debt.

Evaluates the dynamics of the company's industry, including cyclicality, competitive intensity, growth prospects, and systemic risks like ESG factors. Key prompts include assessing competitive intensity using Porter's Five Forces, evaluating long-term growth drivers, and identifying systemic ESG risks for the sector.

Key Concept: CICRA

The Corporate Industry and Country Risk Assessment (CICRA) score combines these two risk categories. The interaction between country and industry factors can create multiplicative, rather than merely additive, risks. For example, a cyclical industry (e.g., automotive) in a country with weak legal institutions faces compounded risk during a downturn.

III. Business Risk Profile Assessment

This section assesses the durability and strength of the company's franchise within its industry context. A company with a strong business profile—characterized by leading market positions, diversification, and stable profitability—can typically sustain higher financial leverage.

Evaluates the company's market standing and the sustainability of its competitive advantages. Key prompts focus on market share, diversification (product, geography, customer), and the durability of competitive advantages like brand or technology.

Examines the company's ability to generate profits and cash flow. A crucial distinction is made between the absolute level of profitability and its volatility; lower volatility implies more predictable cash flows for debt service.

A qualitative assessment of management's competence, strategy, risk appetite, and the robustness of corporate governance. Management's financial policy is a critical indicator of future financial risk.

Considers the influence of a parent company or controlling shareholders. A subsidiary's rating can be positively influenced by a strong parent or negatively impacted by a weak one that may extract resources.

IV. Financial Risk Profile Assessment

This section forms the quantitative core of the analysis, focusing on balance sheet strength and cash flow generation. It begins with critical adjustments to reported financials to reflect economic reality over accounting form, ensuring comparability and accuracy.

This is the most critical step in quantitative analysis. Standard adjustments for items like operating leases and pension deficits create an analytically "clean" set of financials that provide a more accurate picture of a company's leverage and obligations.

Involves calculating and interpreting key credit ratios over the historical period using the adjusted financial figures. The focus is on leverage, coverage, and cash flow metrics, which are central to assessing debt repayment capacity.

Credit ratings are forward-looking. This moves from historical analysis to projecting future performance under a conservative "rating case" forecast to assess debt service capacity "through the cycle".

Assesses the company's ability to meet near-term obligations and manage unexpected cash shortfalls. It involves analyzing the debt maturity profile, available liquidity sources, and covenant headroom.

Key Financial Ratios & Standard Adjustments

Ratio NameFormula using Adjusted MetricsAnalytical Purpose
Leverage Ratios
Adj. Debt / Adj. EBITDA (Reported Debt + PV of Leases) / (EBITDA + Lease Interest - Non-recurring items)Measures leverage relative to normalized cash earnings.
Adj. FFO / Adj. Debt(Cash Flow from Ops + Int. Paid) / (Adjusted Debt)Measures ability to cover debt with operating cash flow.
Coverage Ratios
Adj. EBITDA / Interest(Adjusted EBITDA) / (Reported Interest + Lease Interest)Measures ability of cash earnings to cover interest.
Liquidity Ratios
Sources / Uses(Cash + Available Revolver) / (Short-Term Debt)Measures ability to meet near-term obligations.

V. Synthesis, Rating, and Reporting

The final stage integrates all findings to arrive at a defensible credit rating. This process uses an "anchor and modifier" framework: the combination of Business and Financial risk profiles determines an "anchor" rating, which is then adjusted for other factors like liquidity or instrument structure.

Interactive Risk Scoring Matrix

This matrix demonstrates how the qualitative Business Risk Profile combines with the quantitative Financial Risk Profile to determine an "anchor" credit profile. Hover over a cell to see the resulting rating. A stronger business can support greater financial risk for a given rating.

Business Risk ➔
Financial Risk 👇
MinimalModestIntermediate SignificantAggressiveHighly Leveraged
Excellent
Strong
Satisfactory
Fair
Weak
Vulnerable
Select a cell to see the anchor rating

Framework Overview

Peer Analysis

Benchmark the company against relevant, publicly-rated peers to normalize for industry characteristics.

Modifying Factors & Notching

Adjust the anchor rating for liquidity, financial policy, or instrument-specific features like security and seniority.

Rating Recommendation

State the final rating, outlook (Stable, Positive, Negative), and a concise summary of the rationale.