# PROMPT: Supply Chain Disruption Scenario

**ID:** SIM-SUPPLY-001
**Version:** 1.0
**Tags:** [simulation, macro, logistics]

## Scenario: "The Strait Blockade"

### Context
Geopolitical tensions have led to a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes.

### Trigger Event
**Day 0:** Naval exercises announced. Insurance premiums for tankers spike 500%.
**Day 3:** First tanker intercepted. Oil prices jump 15% overnight.

### Simulation Inputs
- **Oil Price Shock:** $80 -> $120/bbl
- **Inflation Impact:** +0.5% to headline CPI
- **Sector Impact:** Airlines (High negative), Energy (Positive), Consumer Discretionary (Negative)

### Task
Act as the **Portfolio Manager**.
1.  **Hedge Construction:** Identify 3 assets to hedge the portfolio (e.g., USO calls, XLE, Short AAL).
2.  **Risk Exposure:** Quantify the VaR increase for a standard 60/40 portfolio.
3.  **Duration Strategy:** How does this affect the bond portfolio? (Inflation expectations vs. Growth shock).

### Output
Strategic Rebalancing Memo.