# PROMPT: Semiconductor Supply Shock Simulation
**ID:** SIM-SC-004
**Tags:** [Geopolitics, Tech, Supply Chain, Crisis]

## Scenario
**Date:** 2026-04-12
**Event:** "Operation Red Line"
A naval blockade of the Taiwan Strait has been initiated, halting 90% of semiconductor exports from the island. TSMC's fabs are operational but cannot ship wafers. Global air freight routes over the South China Sea are suspended.
**Market Impact:**
*   **Indices:** NDX -15%, SPX -8%
*   **Commodities:** Oil +20%, Gold +12%
*   **Sectors:** Semiconductors (Halted), Auto (-10%), Defense (+5%)

## Task
You are the **Chief Risk Officer** at a $50B Multi-Strategy Fund.
1.  **Immediate Action:** Identify the top 5 positions in our "Tech Growth" portfolio that are most vulnerable to a >60 day disruption (e.g., NVDA, AAPL, AMD) and recommend specific hedging strategies (Put Spreads, VIX Calls, Shorting proxies).
2.  **Second-Order Effects:** Analyze the ripple effect on non-tech sectors. Specifically, assess the impact on the Automotive and Industrial Automation sectors given their reliance on legacy nodes.
3.  **Liquidity Stress Test:** Estimate the impact on our Prime Broker margin requirements if volatility (VIX) spikes to 45.
4.  **Strategic Pivot:** Recommend a capital reallocation plan into "Sovereign Supply Chain" beneficiaries (e.g., INTC, GFS, Defense Primes).

## Output Format
*   **Executive Summary:** (Bullet points, <200 words)
*   **Exposure Analysis:** (Table: Ticker | Exposure Level | Recommended Action)
*   **Scenario Modeling:** (Estimated P&L under 30-day vs 90-day blockade)
*   **Contingency Plan:** (Immediate trade execution list)

## Constraints
*   Assume no US military intervention for the first 72 hours.
*   Focus on financial risk, not political commentary.
*   Use standard derivatives terminology.