# Crisis Simulation Library: Geopolitical Event Scenarios This library provides a set of user-ready scenarios focused on **Geopolitical Events**. These scenarios can be used as the `{{USER_SCENARIO_INPUT}}` in the main `crisis_simulation.md` prompt. --- ### Scenario GEO-001: Sudden Declaration of Tariffs **Description:** A major trading partner nation unexpectedly imposes a 50% tariff on goods manufactured in our primary country of operation. The tariff takes effect in 48 hours, catching our logistics and finance departments completely by surprise. **Potential Primary Impact Nodes:** * **R-SCM-01 (Supply Chain Risk):** The cost of goods sold skyrockets, making products uncompetitive in that market. * **R-FIN-01 (Financial Reporting Risk):** Revenue forecasts for the affected region must be immediately and drastically revised downwards. * **R-LGL-01 (Regulatory Risk):** Existing contracts with distributors in the target nation may be breached due to inability to supply goods at the agreed price. --- ### Scenario GEO-002: Regional Conflict Erupts **Description:** A shooting war breaks out in a region where we have significant manufacturing facilities and a large employee base. Martial law is declared, transportation is commandeered by the military, and the internet is shut down. All communication with our local facilities is lost. **Potential Primary Impact Nodes:** * **R-EMP-01 (Employee Safety Risk):** The immediate physical safety of our employees is at high risk. * **R-OPS-02 (Physical Asset Risk):** Manufacturing plants and inventory are at risk of damage, seizure, or destruction. * **R-SCM-02 (Supplier Failure Risk):** Local suppliers in the conflict zone are completely offline. --- ### Scenario GEO-003: Expropriation of Assets **Description:** The government of a country where we hold significant assets (e.g., data centers, real estate, intellectual property) announces the nationalization of all foreign-owned assets in our industry sector. All access to our local subsidiary is blocked, and its assets are seized. **Potential Primary Impact Nodes:** * **R-OPS-02 (Physical Asset Risk):** Total and permanent loss of all physical assets in the country. * **R-LGL-02 (Legal Risk):** Our legal ownership of the subsidiary and its IP is challenged, leading to protracted and expensive international legal battles. * **R-REP-01 (Reputational Risk):** The event is high-profile and could lead to negative press and questions about the company's risk management practices. --- ### Scenario GEO-004: Key Waterway Blocked **Description:** A major global shipping lane (e.g., the Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz) is blocked due to a geopolitical incident. Dozens of our container ships are trapped, and all inbound and outbound sea freight is indefinitely delayed. Shipping rates on alternative routes surge by 500% overnight. **Potential Primary Impact Nodes:** * **R-SCM-01 (Supply Chain Risk):** Production lines will halt within days due to a lack of raw materials. * **R-FIN-03 (Liquidity Risk):** We must make massive, unplanned expenditures on air freight to keep critical operations running. * **R-OPS-01 (Operational Risk):** Inability to deliver finished goods to customers results in penalties and lost orders. --- ### Scenario GEO-005: Trade War 2.0 (Universal Tariffs) **Description:** The US Administration implements a universal baseline tariff of 10-20% on all imports and a 60% tariff on goods from China. Major trading partners (EU, China, Canada) immediately retaliate with targeted tariffs on US agriculture, LNG, and digital services. **Potential Primary Impact Nodes:** * **R-FIN-01 (Margin Compression):** Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) for retail and tech hardware increases by 15-25%. Companies lacking pricing power see immediate margin erosion. * **R-SCM-01 (Supply Chain Realignment):** Forced acceleration of "China+1" strategies leads to short-term logistical chaos and capacity bottlenecks in Vietnam, India, and Mexico. * **R-MAC-01 (Inflationary Spike):** Higher input costs pass through to consumers, pushing CPI up by 0.5-1.0%, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. --- ### Scenario GEO-006: Energy Dominance & Deregulation **Description:** A massive deregulation package unlocks federal lands for drilling and approves new LNG export terminals, flooding the global market with US energy supply. Oil prices drop below $60/bbl. Concurrently, renewable energy subsidies (IRA) are rolled back or frozen. **Potential Primary Impact Nodes:** * **R-SEC-01 (Sector Divergence):** Traditional Energy (Oil & Gas) sees volume growth but price pressure. Renewable Energy (Solar, Wind, Green Hydrogen) faces an existential "capital cliff" as project economics collapse without subsidies. * **R-GEO-01 (Petro-State Instability):** Reduced oil revenues destabilize regimes in Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, potentially leading to desperate, asymmetrical geopolitical lash-outs (cyberattacks, regional proxy wars). * **R-IND-01 (Industrial Competitiveness):** US Heavy Industry (Steel, Chemicals, Aluminum) gains a significant global cost advantage due to cheap domestic energy inputs.