# Leading Indicators

## Macroeconomic
- **ISM Manufacturing New Orders:** Highly predictive of future industrial production and corporate earnings.
- **Building Permits:** Forward-looking indicator for residential construction and broader economic activity.
- **Consumer Sentiment:** Especially the "Expectations" component regarding future economic conditions.

## Market-Based
- **Yield Curve (2s10s or 3m10s):** The most reliable leading indicator of recession timing.
- **Credit Spreads (HY and IG):** Widen before corporate defaults occur and equity markets bottom.
- **Copper-to-Gold Ratio:** Gauge of global growth expectations versus safe-haven demand.

## Liquidity
- **Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI):** Broad measure of stress across money markets, debt, and equity.
- **SOFR/OIS Spread:** Indicator of interbank lending stress.
- **Central Bank Balance Sheets:** M2 money supply growth and global liquidity aggregates.