[
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_BASE",
    "name": "Base Case (Soft Landing)",
    "description": "Gradual cooling of inflation, stable spreads. Markets price in a successful normalization.",
    "shocks": {}
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_BIFURCATED_NORMALIZATION",
    "name": "Bifurcated Normalization (2026)",
    "description": "Rates fall, but liquidity flows selectively to AI Infrastructure and Quality Defensive Assets. Legacy tech fades while 'The Fortress' consolidates gains.",
    "shocks": {
      "Technology": 0.5,
      "Materials": 0.4,
      "Consumer Discretionary": 0.3,
      "Financials": 0.2,
      "Energy": 0.3
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_LIQUIDITY_CRISIS",
    "name": "Synchronized Liquidity Event",
    "description": "Global margin call. Synchronized liquidation across Stocks, Gold, and Crypto. Cash is the only safe haven as liquidity preference dominates.",
    "shocks": {
      "Technology": -0.8,
      "Financials": -0.5,
      "Energy": -0.2,
      "Materials": -0.6,
      "Real Estate": -0.4,
      "Consumer Discretionary": -0.5
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_HYPER_AGENTIC",
    "name": "Hyper-Agentic Boom",
    "description": "Productivity shock from Sovereign AI. Tech and Energy outperform. Deflationary growth cycle driven by autonomous labor.",
    "shocks": {
      "Technology": 0.8,
      "Energy": 0.6,
      "Utilities": 0.5,
      "Financials": 0.3
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_OIL_SHOCK",
    "name": "Energy Crisis (Strait Closure)",
    "description": "Geopolitical escalation leads to Strait closure. Oil spikes to $150/bbl. Transport and Industrials margin crush.",
    "shocks": {
      "Energy": 0.4,
      "Transportation": -0.6,
      "Industrials": -0.3,
      "Consumer Discretionary": -0.2
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_STAGFLATION",
    "name": "Stagflation Spiral",
    "description": "Wage-price spiral meets supply shocks. High inflation, low growth. Worst case for Consumer/Tech valuation multiples.",
    "shocks": {
      "Consumer Discretionary": -0.7,
      "Technology": -0.5,
      "Real Estate": -0.6,
      "Energy": 0.4
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_CYBER_BLACKOUT",
    "name": "Global Cloud Outage",
    "description": "Systemic failure of major cloud providers (e.g., US-EAST-1). Tech and FinOps paralysis lasting >72 hours.",
    "shocks": {
      "Technology": -0.8,
      "Financials": -0.5,
      "Consumer Discretionary": -0.4
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_SOLAR_FLARE",
    "name": "Global Communications Blackout",
    "description": "Extreme solar flare degrades satellite networks. GPS and international banking severely disrupted.",
    "shocks": {
      "Technology": -0.6,
      "Financials": -0.7,
      "Industrials": 0.2,
      "Utilities": -0.4
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_CRE_COLLAPSE",
    "name": "Commercial Real Estate Bust",
    "description": "Urban office values down 40%. Regional banking stress triggers credit contraction.",
    "shocks": {
      "Real Estate": -0.7,
      "Financials": -0.6,
      "Industrials": -0.2
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_SOVEREIGN_DEFAULT",
    "name": "Simultaneous Sovereign Default",
    "description": "Contagion event where multiple major economies (e.g., Italy, Brazil) default. Flight to safety into USD.",
    "shocks": {
      "Financials": -0.6,
      "Materials": -0.5,
      "Consumer Discretionary": -0.4,
      "Energy": -0.3
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_NATURAL_CATASTROPHE",
    "name": "Cascading Natural Catastrophe",
    "description": "Volcanic eruption disrupts supply chains coinciding with severe agricultural drought. Commodity prices spike.",
    "shocks": {
      "Materials": 0.5,
      "Industrials": -0.5,
      "Transportation": -0.5,
      "Consumer Discretionary": -0.3
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_QUANTUM_EVENT",
    "name": "Quantum Decryption Event",
    "description": "Post-quantum cryptography failure. Banking and Health records exposed. Massive selloff in legacy security sectors.",
    "shocks": {
      "Technology": -1.0,
      "Financials": -0.9,
      "Healthcare": -0.7
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_AI_BUBBLE",
    "name": "AI Bubble Burst",
    "description": "CAPEX ROI disappointment triggers massive tech selloff. The 'Model Collapse' thesis gains traction.",
    "shocks": {
      "Technology": -0.9,
      "Energy": -0.4,
      "Real Estate": -0.3
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_SUPPLY_CHAIN",
    "name": "Global Supply Chain Collapse",
    "description": "Trade war escalation closes major shipping lanes. Deglobalization accelerates.",
    "shocks": {
      "Industrials": -0.8,
      "Consumer Discretionary": -0.7,
      "Transportation": -0.6,
      "Technology": -0.5
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_MACRO_GLITCH",
    "name": "The Macro Glitch (Indices > Reality)",
    "description": "Critical divergence between price and fundamental reality. SPX attempts 7,000 while VIX flashes >20. 'Blue Screen of Death' on NDX momentum as capital rotates to hard assets.",
    "shocks": {
      "Technology": -0.6,
      "Financials": -0.5,
      "Consumer Discretionary": -0.4,
      "Energy": 0.2,
      "Materials": 0.3
    }
  },
  {
    "id": "SCENARIO_DOUBLE_CRISIS",
    "name": "Double Crisis (Sovereign + Counterparty)",
    "description": "A high-fidelity simulation of the Sovereign-Bank Nexus and Repo Run dynamics. Country Z is downgraded, triggering a liquidity freeze and counterparty failure.",
    "shocks": {
      "Financials": -0.8,
      "Real Estate": -0.5,
      "Industrials": -0.3,
      "Technology": -0.2
    }
  }
]